Going factual. Enough of my bluster about Philippine culture and ways. Let me deal with something tangible, provoked by the following premise:
The Philippines is the most vulnerable nation in the world to the impacts of global warming.
Vulnerability to global warming has five aspects:
Rising seas
Changing micro-climates
More intense storms
Resources
Readiness
Rising seas
Based on the CIA Factbook, the Philippines has the fifth largest coastline of any country in the world. Among the 10 countries with more than 15,000 kilometers of coastline to defend, it has the highest ratio of coastline to area. The Philippines has only 298,139 square kilometers of land and a whopping 36,289 kilometers of coastline to defend. Among those nations with large coastlines, the Philippines is by far the most vulnerable. The ratio of coastline to area is an astounding 122 meters of coast for each square kilometer of land. Norway and Japan are far behind at about 80.
That rich and greedy commercial monster to the east, the United States, must defend a mere 2 meters of coast for each square kilometer of land.
The Philippines has a population of 93 million and about 60% of that population, or just short of 60 million, lives in coastal cities and towns. Manila, with 20 million residents, is extraordinarily vulnerable. Nowhere on the planet are so many people so vulnerable.
Changing micro-climates
With 7,107 islands, the Philippines has 7,107 problems to solve in terms of sufficient food and water to sustain the population. People tend to live each day as if these resources will never change, but each island is a micro-environment that will change. Meteorologists have looked at some of the larger islands such as Mindanao and project that the western part is likely to grow more arid and the eastern part wetter. Great. What about the 7,106 other islands?
Policy seems to be “every island for itself”.
Indonesia has an even bigger problem. The country has so many islands at around 18,000 that some appear and disappear with the tides, and the nation can't even name or identify or count them all precisely. So the Philippines probably ranks a mere second place in terms of headaches dealing with micro-climate impacts.
More intense storms
The Philippines is smack in the middle of Typhoon Alley. It is not on the perimeter as are its Asian peers, where typhoons slam in and fade as they migrate inland. No, they come at the Philippines from both the east and west, and sometimes the north or south, and the islands are too small to apply the brakes. Last year, you could look both east and west and see a typhoon hovering a day away. One cranky storm spiraled about northern Luzon for a week.
Manila last year got hit with four typhoons in six weeks, capped by Ondoy. No other major urban center in the world faces that relentless threat.
It takes no statistics to see the Number 1 vulnerability of the Philippines. It only takes a map. And reflection on what happened in 2009.
Resources
The Philippines in 2009 ranked 47th in the world in terms of GDP at $US 158.7 billion. Among the 10 nations with over 15,000 kilometers of coastline, the Philippines ranked seventh with only sparsely populated New Zealand and Greenland being less well endowed. (Snicker) Indonesia had GDP of $US 514.9 billion, over three times what the Philippines generates yearly.
The Philippines is dead last in terms of scope of problem cast against available resources to solve it.
Readiness
The Philippines has several initiatives underway, but the overall approach would have to be considered haphazard. The national government made a commitment to limiting greenhouse gasses and in early 2010 formed a climate change committee charged with organizing a response to global warming. A group of private business leaders is addressing Manila's vulnerabilities, out of self-interest. No report has been issued as of yet. Mindanao has a few small-scale initiatives going on, mainly focused on water supplies to areas that are threatened now
Of course, bearing on readiness is the loud voice of those who say global warming is nothing but a natural cycle, that those promoting it are interested in profit. “What me worry?” Of course, the anti's are betting the planet on this position, and you will never get an oppositionist to state what happens if they are wrong.
I wonder if there is another country that is LESS prepared. Hard to imagine.
Conclusion
Is the Philippines the most vulnerable nation? Indonesia would argue otherwise. With a bigger population of 235 million spread across 17,805 islands, and highly vulnerable to storms from either the Pacific or Indian Oceans, Indonesia is challenged for sure. The Maldives would argue. That nation gets the “terminal solution”, erased from the planet at a sea level rise of 10 meters. But they can probably round up enough boats to relocate the 350,000 citizens.
Very clearly, the Philippines is extraordinarily vulnerable. It has a huge coastline to defend and a huge population vulnerable to rising seas. Resources are very thin and readiness is weak and unorganized.
To the logical and linear Western mind, what SHOULD happen is very clear and very simple. Organize and fund a concerted program to defend the Philippines. Not study it. Defend.
If planning is done early, the cost is spread over many years and the Philippine budget can deal with it. Handle it on a COMELEC basis, cramming too much into too little time, or an ONDOY basis, after the fact . . . and global warming is a potential nation-killer, throwing the Philippines into chaos, destruction and endless poverty.
Yours for Boy Scout thinking, “be prepared”. Yours for forward thinking, not backward. Yours for a NASA approach to global warming, linking private and government efforts, and scientific and applied engineering efforts, aimed at defending the nation.
Yours for facts, once in a while.
Joltin' Joe
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